Estimated Delivery Date
Also known as: EDD, Expected Delivery, Delivery Estimate
Definition
An estimated delivery date (EDD) is the projected date when a package should arrive at its destination. Carriers calculate this based on the service selected, distance traveled, and historical performance data.
How Carriers Calculate EDD
Factors considered:
- Ship date and time
- Service level (overnight, ground, etc.)
- Origin and destination zones
- Day of week shipped
- Historical delivery performance
- Current network conditions
Example:
- Ship Monday with 3-day ground
- Skip Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday (3 transit days)
- EDD: Thursday
EDD Accuracy by Carrier
| Carrier | Service | On-Time Rate |
|---|---|---|
| USPS | Priority Mail | 92-95% |
| UPS | Ground | 95-98% |
| FedEx | Ground | 95-98% |
| All | Express/Overnight | 98%+ |
On-time rates vary by season, with peak holiday periods showing lower performance.
When EDD Changes
Your delivery date may update due to:
Delays:
- Weather events
- Carrier volume
- Customs processing
- Address issues
- Mechanical problems
Faster delivery:
- Routing optimization
- Light volume days
- Carrier hub proximity
Check tracking regularly for updated estimates.
Guaranteed vs. Estimated Dates
| Guaranteed | Estimated |
|---|---|
| Express services | Ground services |
| Refund if missed | No refund |
| Specific time commitment | Date range |
| Higher price | Lower price |
Only guaranteed services qualify for money-back if deadline missed.
Communicating EDD to Customers
Best practices:
- Show date ranges - “Arriving Dec 5-7” vs. exact date
- Include handling time - Don’t just show carrier transit
- Be conservative - Under-promise, over-deliver
- Update proactively - Notify of changes immediately
- Explain delays - Transparency builds trust
Customer-facing formula:
Delivery Date = Order Date + Handling Days + Transit Days
EDD at Checkout
Showing delivery dates increases conversion:
- “Get it by Thursday” is more compelling than “3-5 business days”
- Date-based messaging reduces cart abandonment
- Sets clear expectations
Calculating Accurate EDD
1. Current time vs. shipping cutoff
2. + Your handling time (1-2 days)
3. + Carrier transit time for service/zone
4. + Weekend/holiday adjustments
= Displayed delivery date
Holiday Shipping Considerations
During peak season:
- Add 1-3 buffer days to estimates
- Communicate cutoff dates clearly
- Recommend faster services for late orders
- Update estimates if carriers announce delays
When EDD Is Wrong
If delivery is late:
For express services:
- Request refund from carrier
- Many offer automatic credits
For non-guaranteed:
- No refund available
- Contact carrier for investigation
- Communicate with customer
For customers:
- Apologize for delay
- Provide updated estimate
- Offer compensation if appropriate